CIVS poll result

Poll description

So far, only John Delaney (D-MD) has announced his intention. Who else is likely to run? (Use the thresholds to estimate probability, and drag&drop names between them )

Result

1. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (Condorcet winner: wins contests with all other choices)

2. Individuals above this threshold will almost certainly run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 13–7

3. Sen. Kamala Harris loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 13–7, loses to Individuals above this threshold will almost certainly run by 10–8

4. Sen. Elizabeth Warren loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 13–8, loses to Individuals above this threshold will almost certainly run by 13–8

5. Sen. Cory Booker loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 16–4, loses to Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 12–9

6. VP Joe Biden loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 16–4, loses to Sen. Cory Booker by 10–9

7. Sen. Bernie Sanders loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 15–6, loses to VP Joe Biden by 11–8

8. Individuals above this threshold are highly likely to run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 17–3, loses to Sen. Bernie Sanders by 12–9

9. Gov. Martin O'Malley loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 16–4, loses to Individuals above this threshold are highly likely to run by 11–7

10. Sen. Amy Klobuchar loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Gov. Martin O'Malley by 11–8

11. Individuals above this threshold are somewhat likely to run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 18–2, loses to Sen. Amy Klobuchar by 13–6

12. Sec. Julian Castro loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 18–2, loses to Individuals above this threshold are somewhat likely to run by 12–7

13. Gov. Andrew Cuomo loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Individuals above this threshold are somewhat likely to run by 10–8

14. Gov. John Hickenlooper loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 9–8

15. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 18–3, loses to Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 10–7

16. Gov. Steve Bullock loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Gov. John Hickenlooper by 9–7

17. Individuals above this are more likely to run than not, below this the reverse loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Gov. Steve Bullock by 10–8

18. Eric Garcetti loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Individuals above this are more likely to run than not, below this the reverse by 10–7

19. Sen. Sherrod Brown loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Eric Garcetti by 11–5

20. Gov. Lincoln Chafee loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 18–4, loses to Sen. Sherrod Brown by 10–9

21. Gov. Terry McAuliffe loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 18–2, loses to Gov. Lincoln Chafee by 10–9

22. Gov. Deval Patrick loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 8–7

23. Sen. Tim Kaine loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–0, loses to Gov. Deval Patrick by 10–7

24. Individuals below this threshold are somewhat unlikely to run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Gov. Deval Patrick by 10–8

25. Sen. Jeff Merkley loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Individuals below this threshold are somewhat unlikely to run by 10–7

26. Sen. Chris Murphy loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Individuals below this threshold are somewhat unlikely to run by 11–6

27. Mark Zuckerberg loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Sen. Jeff Merkley by 9–7

28. Mark Cuban loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Mark Zuckerberg by 9–5

29. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Mark Cuban by 10–5

30. Rep. Luis Gutierrez loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson by 9–8

31. Sen. Richard Blumenthal loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Rep. Luis Gutierrez by 12–2

32. Gov. John Bel Edwards loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Sen. Richard Blumenthal by 9–6

33. Individuals below this threshold are highly likely to not run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Gov. John Bel Edwards by 9–7

34. Rep. Cheri Bustos loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Individuals below this threshold are highly likely to not run by 9–7

35. At. Gen. Eric Holder loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Rep. Cheri Bustos by 8–7

36. Amb. Caroline Kennedy loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to At. Gen. Eric Holder by 11–4

37. Sec. John Kerry loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 19–1, loses to Amb. Caroline Kennedy by 9–5

38. Individuals below this threshold will almost certainly not run loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Sec. John Kerry by 9–6

39. Sec. Hillary Clinton loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Individuals below this threshold will almost certainly not run by 9–6

40. VP. Al Gore loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to Sec. Hillary Clinton by 9–4

41. Michelle Obama loses to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by 20–0, loses to VP. Al Gore by 10–2

For simplicity, some details of the poll result are not shown.

Result details

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41
1. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand	-	13	13	13	16	16	15	17	16	19	18	18	19	19	18	19	20	19	19	18	18	19	19	20	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	19	19	20	19	20	20	20	20
2. Individuals above this threshold will almost certainly run	7	-	10	13	13	14	14	18	13	18	18	17	17	17	17	18	18	17	18	17	18	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	17	17	18	18	18	18	17	18	18	18	18	18	18
3. Sen. Kamala Harris	7	8	-	10	11	16	14	14	15	17	19	17	18	18	18	19	19	18	18	17	19	18	18	19	19	18	18	17	18	16	19	19	19	19	18	19	19	19	19	19	19
4. Sen. Elizabeth Warren	8	8	10	-	12	12	12	13	13	14	14	17	14	17	15	18	15	16	16	14	17	15	18	17	17	18	15	16	18	17	19	18	19	19	16	18	18	20	18	19	20
5. Sen. Cory Booker	4	4	7	9	-	10	12	13	10	16	17	14	14	16	15	17	17	15	16	16	17	15	17	17	16	17	17	17	16	15	17	17	17	17	16	17	17	17	17	17	17
6. VP Joe Biden	4	5	3	9	9	-	11	10	13	12	16	13	14	15	16	18	16	16	18	15	17	16	18	18	16	18	15	18	18	16	19	18	19	19	17	19	19	19	18	19	19
7. Sen. Bernie Sanders	6	7	7	9	8	8	-	12	13	11	16	16	14	17	16	18	18	19	18	16	18	17	18	19	18	20	17	18	20	17	20	18	20	20	17	20	19	20	19	20	20
8. Individuals above this threshold are highly likely to run	3	0	3	7	4	9	9	-	11	13	17	14	14	16	16	17	18	16	15	16	18	16	17	18	17	18	17	18	17	15	18	18	18	18	17	18	18	18	18	18	18
9. Gov. Martin O'Malley	4	5	4	8	7	5	6	7	-	11	10	10	12	10	13	14	13	12	14	15	14	15	15	13	15	15	15	15	16	13	15	15	16	15	15	17	16	16	16	17	17
10. Sen. Amy Klobuchar	1	2	3	6	3	8	9	7	8	-	13	13	9	15	12	15	14	14	11	13	13	12	14	16	15	14	15	14	16	14	16	14	17	16	15	17	15	17	16	17	17
11. Individuals above this threshold are somewhat likely to run	2	0	0	7	1	3	5	0	8	6	-	12	10	13	11	14	18	15	12	14	13	13	16	18	16	15	16	16	16	15	17	15	18	16	17	18	17	18	17	18	18
12. Sec. Julian Castro	2	2	2	3	4	5	3	5	6	5	7	-	9	9	10	12	10	9	11	12	10	10	14	12	12	12	11	12	14	13	13	14	14	17	13	15	16	16	15	17	17
13. Gov. Andrew Cuomo	1	2	2	6	4	6	6	5	6	7	8	9	-	9	10	10	11	10	8	11	13	13	13	12	11	12	13	16	15	12	14	11	15	14	13	16	14	16	14	16	16
14. Gov. John Hickenlooper	1	1	1	3	1	3	2	2	5	3	5	6	8	-	9	9	9	8	10	11	9	9	13	12	12	13	12	12	14	11	15	13	14	16	13	13	15	15	14	16	16
15. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard	3	3	3	5	4	5	4	4	6	6	8	9	7	9	-	8	10	10	10	11	10	12	15	13	13	13	16	15	15	13	14	13	16	14	14	16	15	17	17	18	18
16. Gov. Steve Bullock	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	2	4	2	4	6	6	7	8	-	10	7	8	10	8	7	10	11	11	11	12	13	13	11	11	12	13	14	12	13	13	15	14	16	16
17. Individuals above this are more likely to run than not, below this the reverse	0	0	0	6	0	3	2	0	4	5	0	8	6	8	9	8	-	10	9	12	7	9	13	15	13	12	11	12	14	14	15	14	16	15	14	16	16	16	15	16	16
18. Eric Garcetti	1	1	1	4	2	2	0	2	3	4	3	6	7	6	8	9	7	-	11	11	8	10	11	10	11	12	11	10	10	10	13	11	12	13	11	12	14	14	14	15	15
19. Sen. Sherrod Brown	1	0	0	4	0	1	2	2	3	6	5	6	8	6	8	9	8	5	-	10	11	8	10	9	9	11	10	11	11	10	13	11	12	13	11	13	14	15	13	15	15
20. Gov. Lincoln Chafee	4	4	4	8	4	6	6	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	-	10	10	12	10	9	10	12	10	12	11	13	10	12	13	12	15	14	17	15	17	18
21. Gov. Terry McAuliffe	2	0	0	4	0	2	2	0	3	4	4	8	3	7	8	7	10	8	5	9	-	8	12	11	9	10	11	10	11	9	10	11	12	11	9	12	12	13	12	13	13
22. Gov. Deval Patrick	1	2	1	5	2	4	3	2	3	5	6	8	3	7	6	8	9	6	7	10	7	-	10	10	12	12	11	11	11	10	13	11	12	13	13	13	13	14	12	14	15
23. Sen. Tim Kaine	0	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	8	6	7	7	8	6	7	-	9	9	9	11	9	11	11	11	10	12	12	12	12	14	16	14	16	17
24. Individuals below this threshold are somewhat unlikely to run	0	0	0	4	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	5	6	4	6	7	0	6	8	10	6	8	10	-	10	11	11	8	11	12	14	11	15	15	13	14	15	15	13	16	16
25. Sen. Jeff Merkley	1	0	0	3	1	3	2	1	2	1	1	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	6	9	5	3	8	7	-	6	9	8	9	9	12	8	12	12	11	11	11	13	11	14	13
26. Sen. Chris Murphy	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	2	2	2	5	3	3	4	4	5	3	4	8	3	3	8	6	7	-	7	7	8	7	8	7	11	10	8	11	9	11	11	11	12
27. Mark Zuckerberg	1	1	1	5	1	4	3	2	3	2	3	6	4	5	3	6	7	6	6	7	5	6	6	7	7	9	-	9	10	9	11	7	11	11	9	9	11	12	12	13	14
28. Mark Cuban	1	1	2	4	1	1	2	1	3	3	3	5	1	5	4	5	6	7	5	9	6	6	8	10	8	9	5	-	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	11	11	13	11	12	13
29. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson	1	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	2	1	3	3	2	3	4	5	4	7	5	7	6	6	6	7	7	8	5	5	-	9	11	9	8	10	9	12	11	13	10	13	14
30. Rep. Luis Gutierrez	1	1	3	3	2	2	2	3	2	4	3	2	5	3	5	5	3	3	6	8	7	6	7	4	6	8	8	7	8	-	12	10	9	12	10	11	13	12	12	14	15
31. Sen. Richard Blumenthal	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	3	4	2	1	3	5	4	3	7	2	2	5	6	7	6	2	-	9	7	10	8	10	11	11	11	13	14
32. Gov. John Bel Edwards	1	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	2	3	2	3	5	3	3	3	3	5	5	7	5	6	8	6	7	8	10	7	8	6	6	-	9	8	7	9	12	14	13	15	16
33. Individuals below this threshold are highly likely to not run	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	1	2	4	1	3	4	7	5	5	6	1	4	5	6	7	8	6	8	7	-	9	10	11	12	15	12	14	15
34. Rep. Cheri Bustos	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	0	2	0	2	2	3	4	4	3	6	2	2	4	6	7	7	3	4	6	7	-	8	8	9	10	11	13	13
35. At. Gen. Eric Holder	1	1	1	4	1	1	2	1	1	3	1	3	4	2	3	4	3	4	5	6	6	4	6	4	5	7	6	7	8	5	7	8	6	7	-	11	13	11	12	14	14
36. Amb. Caroline Kennedy	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	3	1	2	1	3	3	3	4	3	6	3	3	4	7	6	5	4	5	5	5	6	4	-	9	8	12	13	14
37. Sec. John Kerry	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	1	2	1	1	2	1	2	2	3	4	4	4	2	3	6	6	6	6	3	4	2	4	5	2	5	-	9	9	14	15
38. Individuals below this threshold will almost certainly not run	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	1	1	2	4	3	2	0	2	5	5	4	4	3	4	2	0	6	5	7	6	-	9	10	13
39. Sec. Hillary Clinton	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	3	2	2	2	4	4	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	5	4	5	3	4	5	4	3	6	6	-	9	10
40. VP. Al Gore	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	2	2	1	1	1	4	2	2	2	2	3	1	1	3	1	3	2	6	4	-	10
41. Michelle Obama	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	2	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	2	2	-

Ballot reporting was not enabled for this poll.

Rank 1:
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (32): vs. 36 : (8 - 13) vs. 0 : (7 - 13) vs. 21 : (7 - 13) vs. 13 : (6 - 15) vs. 7 : (4 - 16) vs. 12 : (4 - 16) vs. 15 : (4 - 16) vs. 1 : (3 - 17) vs. 18 : (4 - 18) vs. 20 : (3 - 18) vs. 2 : (2 - 18) vs. 8 : (2 - 18) vs. 26 : (2 - 18) vs. 9 : (1 - 19) vs. 10 : (1 - 19) vs. 11 : (1 - 19) vs. 14 : (1 - 19) vs. 16 : (1 - 19) vs. 17 : (1 - 19) vs. 19 : (1 - 19) vs. 22 : (1 - 19) vs. 24 : (1 - 19) vs. 25 : (1 - 19) vs. 27 : (1 - 19) vs. 28 : (1 - 19) vs. 29 : (1 - 19) vs. 31 : (1 - 19) vs. 35 : (1 - 19) vs. 37 : (1 - 19) vs. 38 : (1 - 19) vs. 40 : (1 - 19) vs. 34 : (0 - 19) vs. 3 : (0 - 20) vs. 4 : (0 - 20) vs. 5 : (0 - 20) vs. 6 : (0 - 20) vs. 23 : (0 - 20) vs. 30 : (0 - 20) vs. 33 : (0 - 20) vs. 39 : (0 - 20)
Rank 2:
Individuals above this threshold will almost certainly run (0): vs. 21 : (8 - 10) vs. 36 : (8 - 13) vs. 13 : (7 - 14) vs. 12 : (5 - 13) vs. 15 : (4 - 13) vs. 7 : (5 - 14) vs. 18 : (4 - 17) vs. 20 : (3 - 17) vs. 8 : (2 - 17) vs. 28 : (2 - 17) vs. 31 : (2 - 17) vs. 9 : (1 - 17) vs. 10 : (1 - 17) vs. 11 : (1 - 17) vs. 22 : (1 - 17) vs. 40 : (1 - 17) vs. 25 : (2 - 18) vs. 34 : (2 - 18) vs. 16 : (1 - 18) vs. 37 : (1 - 18) vs. 38 : (1 - 18) vs. 1 : (0 - 18) vs. 2 : (0 - 18) vs. 3 : (0 - 18) vs. 4 : (0 - 18) vs. 5 : (0 - 18) vs. 6 : (0 - 18) vs. 14 : (0 - 18) vs. 17 : (0 - 18) vs. 19 : (0 - 18) vs. 23 : (0 - 18) vs. 24 : (0 - 18) vs. 26 : (0 - 18) vs. 27 : (0 - 18) vs. 29 : (0 - 18) vs. 30 : (0 - 18) vs. 33 : (0 - 18) vs. 35 : (0 - 18) vs. 39 : (0 - 18)
Rank 3:
Sen. Kamala Harris (21): vs. 36 : (10 - 10) vs. 15 : (7 - 11) vs. 13 : (7 - 14) vs. 1 : (3 - 14) vs. 12 : (4 - 15) vs. 7 : (3 - 16) vs. 10 : (3 - 16) vs. 18 : (4 - 17) vs. 25 : (3 - 17) vs. 8 : (2 - 17) vs. 38 : (2 - 17) vs. 20 : (3 - 18) vs. 31 : (2 - 18) vs. 34 : (2 - 18) vs. 9 : (1 - 18) vs. 11 : (1 - 18) vs. 22 : (1 - 18) vs. 28 : (1 - 18) vs. 35 : (1 - 18) vs. 37 : (1 - 18) vs. 40 : (1 - 18) vs. 29 : (0 - 18) vs. 16 : (1 - 19) vs. 2 : (0 - 19) vs. 3 : (0 - 19) vs. 4 : (0 - 19) vs. 5 : (0 - 19) vs. 6 : (0 - 19) vs. 14 : (0 - 19) vs. 17 : (0 - 19) vs. 19 : (0 - 19) vs. 23 : (0 - 19) vs. 24 : (0 - 19) vs. 26 : (0 - 19) vs. 27 : (0 - 19) vs. 30 : (0 - 19) vs. 33 : (0 - 19) vs. 39 : (0 - 19)
Rank 4:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (36): vs. 7 : (9 - 12) vs. 13 : (9 - 12) vs. 15 : (9 - 12) vs. 12 : (8 - 13) vs. 1 : (7 - 13) vs. 18 : (8 - 14) vs. 2 : (7 - 14) vs. 25 : (6 - 14) vs. 31 : (6 - 14) vs. 3 : (6 - 15) vs. 20 : (5 - 15) vs. 28 : (5 - 15) vs. 37 : (5 - 15) vs. 9 : (4 - 16) vs. 22 : (4 - 16) vs. 29 : (4 - 16) vs. 38 : (4 - 16) vs. 4 : (4 - 17) vs. 26 : (4 - 17) vs. 8 : (3 - 17) vs. 10 : (3 - 17) vs. 11 : (3 - 17) vs. 27 : (3 - 17) vs. 16 : (2 - 18) vs. 19 : (2 - 18) vs. 23 : (2 - 18) vs. 24 : (2 - 18) vs. 30 : (2 - 18) vs. 34 : (2 - 18) vs. 35 : (2 - 18) vs. 40 : (2 - 18) vs. 5 : (1 - 19) vs. 14 : (1 - 19) vs. 17 : (1 - 19) vs. 33 : (1 - 19) vs. 6 : (0 - 20) vs. 39 : (0 - 20)
Rank 5:
Sen. Cory Booker (15): vs. 7 : (9 - 10) vs. 12 : (7 - 10) vs. 13 : (8 - 12) vs. 1 : (4 - 13) vs. 8 : (4 - 14) vs. 31 : (4 - 14) vs. 20 : (4 - 15) vs. 18 : (4 - 16) vs. 9 : (2 - 15) vs. 10 : (2 - 15) vs. 28 : (2 - 15) vs. 25 : (3 - 16) vs. 40 : (2 - 16) vs. 11 : (1 - 16) vs. 22 : (1 - 16) vs. 27 : (1 - 16) vs. 34 : (2 - 17) vs. 29 : (0 - 16) vs. 2 : (1 - 17) vs. 16 : (1 - 17) vs. 37 : (1 - 17) vs. 38 : (1 - 17) vs. 3 : (0 - 17) vs. 4 : (0 - 17) vs. 5 : (0 - 17) vs. 6 : (0 - 17) vs. 14 : (0 - 17) vs. 17 : (0 - 17) vs. 19 : (0 - 17) vs. 23 : (0 - 17) vs. 24 : (0 - 17) vs. 26 : (0 - 17) vs. 30 : (0 - 17) vs. 33 : (0 - 17) vs. 35 : (0 - 17) vs. 39 : (0 - 17)
Rank 6:
VP Joe Biden (7): vs. 1 : (9 - 10) vs. 13 : (8 - 11) vs. 25 : (8 - 12) vs. 8 : (5 - 13) vs. 12 : (5 - 13) vs. 31 : (6 - 14) vs. 18 : (6 - 15) vs. 37 : (4 - 15) vs. 20 : (5 - 16) vs. 11 : (3 - 15) vs. 28 : (4 - 16) vs. 2 : (3 - 16) vs. 3 : (3 - 16) vs. 27 : (3 - 16) vs. 9 : (2 - 16) vs. 10 : (2 - 16) vs. 26 : (2 - 17) vs. 22 : (1 - 17) vs. 16 : (2 - 18) vs. 34 : (2 - 18) vs. 4 : (1 - 18) vs. 19 : (1 - 18) vs. 29 : (1 - 18) vs. 30 : (1 - 18) vs. 35 : (1 - 18) vs. 38 : (1 - 18) vs. 40 : (1 - 18) vs. 5 : (0 - 19) vs. 6 : (0 - 19) vs. 14 : (0 - 19) vs. 17 : (0 - 19) vs. 23 : (0 - 19) vs. 24 : (0 - 19) vs. 33 : (0 - 19) vs. 39 : (0 - 19)
Rank 7:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (13): vs. 25 : (9 - 11) vs. 1 : (9 - 12) vs. 12 : (6 - 13) vs. 31 : (6 - 14) vs. 18 : (6 - 16) vs. 2 : (5 - 16) vs. 20 : (4 - 16) vs. 8 : (3 - 16) vs. 28 : (3 - 17) vs. 37 : (3 - 17) vs. 10 : (2 - 17) vs. 11 : (2 - 17) vs. 22 : (2 - 17) vs. 3 : (2 - 18) vs. 16 : (2 - 18) vs. 19 : (2 - 18) vs. 26 : (2 - 18) vs. 27 : (2 - 18) vs. 29 : (2 - 18) vs. 34 : (2 - 18) vs. 38 : (2 - 18) vs. 4 : (1 - 19) vs. 24 : (1 - 19) vs. 30 : (1 - 19) vs. 9 : (0 - 19) vs. 5 : (0 - 20) vs. 6 : (0 - 20) vs. 14 : (0 - 20) vs. 17 : (0 - 20) vs. 23 : (0 - 20) vs. 33 : (0 - 20) vs. 35 : (0 - 20) vs. 39 : (0 - 20) vs. 40 : (0 - 20)
Rank 8:
Individuals above this threshold are highly likely to run (1): vs. 12 : (7 - 11) vs. 25 : (7 - 13) vs. 8 : (5 - 14) vs. 31 : (5 - 14) vs. 18 : (5 - 16) vs. 10 : (3 - 15) vs. 20 : (4 - 16) vs. 29 : (2 - 15) vs. 9 : (2 - 16) vs. 11 : (2 - 16) vs. 28 : (2 - 16) vs. 34 : (3 - 17) vs. 16 : (2 - 17) vs. 37 : (2 - 17) vs. 40 : (2 - 17) vs. 22 : (1 - 17) vs. 27 : (1 - 17) vs. 2 : (0 - 17) vs. 38 : (1 - 18) vs. 3 : (0 - 18) vs. 4 : (0 - 18) vs. 5 : (0 - 18) vs. 6 : (0 - 18) vs. 14 : (0 - 18) vs. 17 : (0 - 18) vs. 19 : (0 - 18) vs. 23 : (0 - 18) vs. 24 : (0 - 18) vs. 26 : (0 - 18) vs. 30 : (0 - 18) vs. 33 : (0 - 18) vs. 35 : (0 - 18) vs. 39 : (0 - 18)
Rank 9:
Gov. Martin O'Malley (12): vs. 2 : (8 - 10) vs. 25 : (8 - 11) vs. 8 : (6 - 10) vs. 11 : (5 - 10) vs. 31 : (6 - 12) vs. 20 : (6 - 13) vs. 9 : (3 - 12) vs. 3 : (4 - 13) vs. 16 : (4 - 14) vs. 18 : (5 - 15) vs. 4 : (2 - 13) vs. 10 : (2 - 13) vs. 26 : (3 - 14) vs. 29 : (3 - 14) vs. 34 : (4 - 15) vs. 28 : (3 - 15) vs. 37 : (3 - 15) vs. 38 : (3 - 15) vs. 17 : (2 - 15) vs. 19 : (2 - 15) vs. 27 : (2 - 15) vs. 35 : (2 - 15) vs. 14 : (1 - 15) vs. 22 : (1 - 15) vs. 40 : (2 - 16) vs. 24 : (1 - 16) vs. 30 : (1 - 16) vs. 5 : (0 - 16) vs. 6 : (0 - 16) vs. 23 : (0 - 17) vs. 33 : (0 - 17) vs. 39 : (0 - 17)
Rank 10:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (25): vs. 31 : (7 - 9) vs. 29 : (6 - 11) vs. 20 : (6 - 12) vs. 28 : (5 - 12) vs. 2 : (6 - 13) vs. 18 : (6 - 13) vs. 8 : (5 - 13) vs. 26 : (4 - 13) vs. 3 : (5 - 14) vs. 9 : (4 - 14) vs. 10 : (4 - 14) vs. 19 : (3 - 14) vs. 34 : (3 - 14) vs. 38 : (3 - 14) vs. 35 : (2 - 14) vs. 11 : (3 - 15) vs. 22 : (3 - 15) vs. 16 : (2 - 15) vs. 24 : (2 - 15) vs. 37 : (2 - 15) vs. 4 : (3 - 16) vs. 27 : (1 - 15) vs. 14 : (1 - 16) vs. 17 : (1 - 16) vs. 30 : (1 - 16) vs. 40 : (1 - 16) vs. 5 : (1 - 17) vs. 6 : (1 - 17) vs. 23 : (1 - 17) vs. 33 : (0 - 17) vs. 39 : (0 - 17)
Rank 11:
Individuals above this threshold are somewhat likely to run (2): vs. 31 : (8 - 10) vs. 20 : (8 - 11) vs. 8 : (7 - 12) vs. 29 : (5 - 12) vs. 28 : (6 - 13) vs. 11 : (5 - 13) vs. 18 : (6 - 14) vs. 26 : (4 - 13) vs. 16 : (4 - 14) vs. 9 : (3 - 15) vs. 10 : (3 - 15) vs. 34 : (4 - 16) vs. 19 : (2 - 15) vs. 35 : (2 - 15) vs. 37 : (3 - 16) vs. 38 : (3 - 16) vs. 40 : (3 - 16) vs. 17 : (1 - 16) vs. 27 : (1 - 16) vs. 22 : (1 - 17) vs. 30 : (1 - 17) vs. 14 : (0 - 17) vs. 24 : (0 - 17) vs. 3 : (0 - 18) vs. 4 : (0 - 18) vs. 5 : (0 - 18) vs. 6 : (0 - 18) vs. 23 : (0 - 18) vs. 33 : (0 - 18) vs. 39 : (0 - 18)
Rank 12:
Sec. Julian Castro (8): vs. 31 : (9 - 9) vs. 20 : (9 - 10) vs. 3 : (8 - 10) vs. 26 : (8 - 10) vs. 28 : (8 - 10) vs. 9 : (6 - 9) vs. 11 : (6 - 9) vs. 29 : (6 - 11) vs. 37 : (6 - 11) vs. 18 : (7 - 12) vs. 16 : (6 - 12) vs. 4 : (5 - 12) vs. 27 : (5 - 12) vs. 35 : (5 - 12) vs. 38 : (5 - 12) vs. 14 : (3 - 13) vs. 22 : (3 - 13) vs. 34 : (4 - 14) vs. 10 : (2 - 13) vs. 19 : (3 - 14) vs. 40 : (3 - 14) vs. 5 : (2 - 14) vs. 23 : (2 - 15) vs. 30 : (2 - 15) vs. 24 : (1 - 16) vs. 6 : (0 - 16) vs. 17 : (0 - 17) vs. 33 : (0 - 17) vs. 39 : (0 - 17)
Rank 13:
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (31): vs. 29 : (8 - 8) vs. 8 : (9 - 9) vs. 11 : (8 - 9) vs. 9 : (7 - 10) vs. 20 : (7 - 10) vs. 18 : (8 - 11) vs. 16 : (6 - 10) vs. 3 : (6 - 11) vs. 19 : (5 - 11) vs. 4 : (6 - 12) vs. 27 : (4 - 11) vs. 10 : (5 - 12) vs. 35 : (3 - 12) vs. 22 : (4 - 13) vs. 34 : (4 - 13) vs. 37 : (4 - 13) vs. 26 : (3 - 13) vs. 28 : (3 - 13) vs. 14 : (2 - 14) vs. 17 : (2 - 14) vs. 24 : (2 - 14) vs. 30 : (2 - 14) vs. 5 : (2 - 15) vs. 40 : (2 - 15) vs. 6 : (1 - 16) vs. 23 : (1 - 16) vs. 38 : (1 - 16) vs. 33 : (0 - 16) vs. 39 : (0 - 16)
Rank 14:
Gov. John Hickenlooper (11): vs. 20 : (9 - 9) vs. 3 : (8 - 9) vs. 9 : (6 - 8) vs. 16 : (7 - 9) vs. 26 : (7 - 9) vs. 28 : (7 - 9) vs. 18 : (8 - 11) vs. 29 : (6 - 10) vs. 37 : (5 - 12) vs. 38 : (5 - 12) vs. 10 : (3 - 11) vs. 4 : (4 - 12) vs. 27 : (4 - 12) vs. 34 : (5 - 13) vs. 19 : (3 - 13) vs. 23 : (3 - 13) vs. 35 : (3 - 13) vs. 22 : (2 - 13) vs. 40 : (3 - 14) vs. 30 : (2 - 14) vs. 5 : (1 - 14) vs. 24 : (1 - 15) vs. 6 : (0 - 15) vs. 14 : (0 - 15) vs. 17 : (0 - 16) vs. 33 : (0 - 16) vs. 39 : (0 - 16)
Rank 15:
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (20): vs. 16 : (8 - 8) vs. 11 : (9 - 9) vs. 3 : (9 - 10) vs. 9 : (8 - 10) vs. 26 : (8 - 10) vs. 29 : (8 - 10) vs. 18 : (8 - 11) vs. 28 : (6 - 12) vs. 4 : (6 - 13) vs. 10 : (5 - 13) vs. 27 : (4 - 13) vs. 35 : (4 - 13) vs. 19 : (3 - 13) vs. 14 : (3 - 14) vs. 22 : (3 - 14) vs. 34 : (4 - 15) vs. 38 : (4 - 15) vs. 40 : (4 - 15) vs. 17 : (2 - 14) vs. 37 : (3 - 16) vs. 24 : (1 - 15) vs. 5 : (2 - 16) vs. 23 : (1 - 16) vs. 6 : (1 - 17) vs. 30 : (1 - 17) vs. 33 : (0 - 18) vs. 39 : (0 - 18)
Rank 16:
Gov. Steve Bullock (16): vs. 9 : (9 - 7) vs. 11 : (9 - 7) vs. 28 : (8 - 7) vs. 29 : (9 - 8) vs. 20 : (8 - 8) vs. 26 : (7 - 8) vs. 3 : (8 - 10) vs. 18 : (8 - 10) vs. 34 : (8 - 10) vs. 4 : (7 - 11) vs. 10 : (5 - 11) vs. 37 : (6 - 12) vs. 14 : (4 - 11) vs. 27 : (4 - 11) vs. 35 : (4 - 11) vs. 22 : (4 - 12) vs. 38 : (5 - 13) vs. 40 : (5 - 13) vs. 19 : (3 - 12) vs. 5 : (4 - 13) vs. 23 : (2 - 13) vs. 24 : (2 - 13) vs. 30 : (3 - 14) vs. 6 : (2 - 15) vs. 17 : (0 - 14) vs. 33 : (1 - 16) vs. 39 : (1 - 16)
Rank 17:
Individuals above this are more likely to run than not, below this the reverse (3): vs. 26 : (10 - 7) vs. 28 : (9 - 9) vs. 29 : (8 - 9) vs. 9 : (7 - 10) vs. 37 : (7 - 11) vs. 18 : (8 - 12) vs. 38 : (6 - 12) vs. 35 : (5 - 12) vs. 34 : (6 - 13) vs. 27 : (4 - 13) vs. 40 : (4 - 14) vs. 10 : (3 - 14) vs. 19 : (3 - 14) vs. 22 : (3 - 14) vs. 14 : (2 - 15) vs. 17 : (2 - 15) vs. 30 : (2 - 15) vs. 4 : (0 - 15) vs. 5 : (1 - 16) vs. 23 : (1 - 16) vs. 24 : (1 - 16) vs. 33 : (1 - 16) vs. 39 : (1 - 16) vs. 6 : (0 - 16)
Rank 18:
Eric Garcetti (9): vs. 26 : (8 - 8) vs. 16 : (7 - 9) vs. 38 : (7 - 10) vs. 40 : (7 - 10) vs. 18 : (8 - 11) vs. 4 : (6 - 10) vs. 28 : (6 - 10) vs. 34 : (7 - 11) vs. 37 : (6 - 11) vs. 19 : (5 - 11) vs. 29 : (5 - 11) vs. 10 : (3 - 10) vs. 22 : (4 - 11) vs. 27 : (4 - 11) vs. 5 : (3 - 12) vs. 23 : (3 - 12) vs. 35 : (3 - 12) vs. 17 : (2 - 13) vs. 14 : (1 - 13) vs. 24 : (2 - 14) vs. 30 : (2 - 14) vs. 6 : (1 - 14) vs. 33 : (1 - 15) vs. 39 : (1 - 15)
Rank 19:
Sen. Sherrod Brown (29): vs. 28 : (7 - 8) vs. 4 : (8 - 9) vs. 16 : (8 - 9) vs. 18 : (9 - 10) vs. 27 : (6 - 9) vs. 34 : (7 - 10) vs. 10 : (6 - 10) vs. 37 : (6 - 10) vs. 19 : (5 - 11) vs. 22 : (5 - 11) vs. 26 : (5 - 11) vs. 38 : (5 - 11) vs. 40 : (5 - 11) vs. 35 : (4 - 11) vs. 5 : (4 - 12) vs. 14 : (3 - 13) vs. 17 : (3 - 13) vs. 23 : (3 - 13) vs. 30 : (2 - 13) vs. 24 : (2 - 14) vs. 6 : (1 - 15) vs. 33 : (0 - 15) vs. 39 : (0 - 15)
Rank 20:
Gov. Lincoln Chafee (18): vs. 27 : (9 - 9) vs. 4 : (10 - 10) vs. 28 : (10 - 10) vs. 26 : (9 - 10) vs. 38 : (9 - 10) vs. 35 : (8 - 10) vs. 19 : (7 - 10) vs. 10 : (8 - 11) vs. 34 : (8 - 12) vs. 5 : (7 - 12) vs. 37 : (7 - 12) vs. 40 : (7 - 12) vs. 22 : (6 - 12) vs. 14 : (5 - 13) vs. 17 : (4 - 13) vs. 24 : (3 - 14) vs. 30 : (4 - 15) vs. 23 : (3 - 15) vs. 6 : (2 - 17) vs. 33 : (2 - 17) vs. 39 : (1 - 18)
Rank 21:
Gov. Terry McAuliffe (26): vs. 28 : (7 - 8) vs. 10 : (7 - 9) vs. 22 : (6 - 9) vs. 3 : (7 - 10) vs. 27 : (5 - 9) vs. 38 : (6 - 10) vs. 4 : (6 - 11) vs. 40 : (6 - 11) vs. 14 : (4 - 10) vs. 19 : (5 - 11) vs. 37 : (5 - 11) vs. 34 : (6 - 12) vs. 35 : (3 - 10) vs. 17 : (4 - 11) vs. 5 : (5 - 12) vs. 23 : (4 - 12) vs. 24 : (4 - 12) vs. 30 : (4 - 12) vs. 6 : (4 - 13) vs. 33 : (2 - 13) vs. 39 : (2 - 13)
Rank 22:
Gov. Deval Patrick (28): vs. 4 : (8 - 10) vs. 34 : (7 - 10) vs. 10 : (6 - 10) vs. 19 : (6 - 11) vs. 37 : (6 - 11) vs. 38 : (6 - 11) vs. 40 : (6 - 11) vs. 5 : (5 - 12) vs. 30 : (4 - 12) vs. 27 : (3 - 12) vs. 35 : (3 - 12) vs. 22 : (4 - 13) vs. 24 : (4 - 13) vs. 14 : (3 - 13) vs. 17 : (3 - 13) vs. 23 : (3 - 13) vs. 6 : (3 - 14) vs. 33 : (2 - 14) vs. 39 : (1 - 15)
Rank 23:
Sen. Tim Kaine (34): vs. 4 : (10 - 9) vs. 27 : (8 - 9) vs. 35 : (8 - 9) vs. 38 : (8 - 9) vs. 19 : (8 - 10) vs. 10 : (7 - 11) vs. 14 : (7 - 11) vs. 37 : (6 - 11) vs. 40 : (6 - 11) vs. 5 : (6 - 12) vs. 17 : (6 - 12) vs. 22 : (6 - 12) vs. 23 : (6 - 12) vs. 24 : (4 - 14) vs. 30 : (3 - 14) vs. 6 : (2 - 16) vs. 33 : (1 - 16) vs. 39 : (0 - 17)
Rank 24:
Individuals below this threshold are somewhat unlikely to run (4): vs. 38 : (10 - 8) vs. 29 : (9 - 8) vs. 18 : (10 - 10) vs. 34 : (9 - 10) vs. 27 : (7 - 10) vs. 37 : (7 - 11) vs. 40 : (7 - 11) vs. 19 : (6 - 11) vs. 35 : (6 - 11) vs. 10 : (4 - 12) vs. 22 : (4 - 13) vs. 30 : (4 - 13) vs. 23 : (3 - 14) vs. 14 : (2 - 14) vs. 17 : (2 - 15) vs. 24 : (2 - 15) vs. 5 : (1 - 15) vs. 6 : (0 - 15) vs. 33 : (1 - 16) vs. 39 : (1 - 16)
Rank 25:
Sen. Jeff Merkley (27): vs. 35 : (7 - 6) vs. 34 : (9 - 8) vs. 38 : (8 - 8) vs. 18 : (9 - 9) vs. 19 : (7 - 8) vs. 37 : (7 - 9) vs. 40 : (7 - 9) vs. 10 : (6 - 9) vs. 22 : (5 - 11) vs. 23 : (3 - 11) vs. 24 : (3 - 11) vs. 30 : (3 - 11) vs. 5 : (4 - 12) vs. 14 : (2 - 12) vs. 17 : (2 - 12) vs. 6 : (2 - 13) vs. 39 : (1 - 13) vs. 33 : (1 - 14)
Rank 26:
Sen. Chris Murphy (35): vs. 37 : (9 - 7) vs. 38 : (9 - 7) vs. 18 : (10 - 8) vs. 10 : (8 - 7) vs. 19 : (8 - 7) vs. 34 : (9 - 8) vs. 40 : (8 - 8) vs. 27 : (6 - 7) vs. 22 : (7 - 8) vs. 14 : (5 - 8) vs. 24 : (6 - 9) vs. 17 : (4 - 10) vs. 5 : (5 - 11) vs. 6 : (5 - 11) vs. 23 : (4 - 11) vs. 30 : (4 - 11) vs. 33 : (4 - 11) vs. 39 : (3 - 12)
Rank 27:
Mark Zuckerberg (37): vs. 19 : (10 - 7) vs. 10 : (8 - 9) vs. 23 : (7 - 9) vs. 35 : (7 - 9) vs. 22 : (6 - 9) vs. 38 : (5 - 9) vs. 40 : (5 - 10) vs. 5 : (6 - 11) vs. 14 : (6 - 11) vs. 17 : (6 - 11) vs. 24 : (6 - 11) vs. 6 : (5 - 12) vs. 30 : (3 - 12) vs. 33 : (2 - 13) vs. 39 : (1 - 14)
Rank 28:
Mark Cuban (38): vs. 22 : (7 - 9) vs. 35 : (7 - 9) vs. 4 : (8 - 10) vs. 5 : (7 - 10) vs. 10 : (7 - 10) vs. 14 : (7 - 10) vs. 17 : (7 - 10) vs. 19 : (7 - 10) vs. 40 : (5 - 10) vs. 23 : (6 - 11) vs. 24 : (6 - 11) vs. 30 : (3 - 11) vs. 6 : (4 - 13) vs. 33 : (2 - 12) vs. 39 : (1 - 13)
Rank 29:
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (40): vs. 5 : (8 - 8) vs. 35 : (8 - 8) vs. 10 : (8 - 9) vs. 19 : (8 - 9) vs. 22 : (8 - 9) vs. 17 : (7 - 10) vs. 30 : (5 - 10) vs. 14 : (6 - 11) vs. 24 : (6 - 11) vs. 23 : (5 - 12) vs. 6 : (4 - 13) vs. 33 : (2 - 13) vs. 39 : (2 - 14)
Rank 30:
Rep. Luis Gutierrez (10): vs. 5 : (6 - 9) vs. 19 : (6 - 10) vs. 22 : (5 - 10) vs. 23 : (4 - 11) vs. 30 : (4 - 12) vs. 6 : (3 - 12) vs. 17 : (3 - 12) vs. 14 : (2 - 12) vs. 24 : (3 - 13) vs. 33 : (2 - 14) vs. 39 : (1 - 15)
Rank 31:
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (14): vs. 5 : (8 - 7) vs. 22 : (7 - 8) vs. 19 : (6 - 9) vs. 23 : (5 - 10) vs. 17 : (4 - 10) vs. 30 : (5 - 11) vs. 6 : (4 - 11) vs. 24 : (4 - 11) vs. 33 : (3 - 13) vs. 39 : (2 - 14)
Rank 32:
Gov. John Bel Edwards (19): vs. 22 : (8 - 7) vs. 27 : (8 - 7) vs. 40 : (9 - 8) vs. 35 : (7 - 8) vs. 17 : (6 - 8) vs. 5 : (7 - 9) vs. 37 : (7 - 10) vs. 23 : (5 - 9) vs. 24 : (2 - 12) vs. 30 : (3 - 13) vs. 6 : (2 - 14) vs. 33 : (1 - 15) vs. 39 : (0 - 16)
Rank 33:
Individuals below this threshold are highly likely to not run (5): vs. 17 : (7 - 9) vs. 22 : (6 - 10) vs. 23 : (5 - 11) vs. 24 : (4 - 12) vs. 30 : (4 - 12) vs. 33 : (1 - 14) vs. 39 : (1 - 15) vs. 6 : (0 - 15)
Rank 34:
Rep. Cheri Bustos (17): vs. 22 : (7 - 8) vs. 23 : (6 - 8) vs. 24 : (5 - 9) vs. 6 : (6 - 10) vs. 30 : (5 - 11) vs. 33 : (3 - 13) vs. 39 : (3 - 13)
Rank 35:
At. Gen. Eric Holder (22): vs. 6 : (5 - 11) vs. 23 : (4 - 11) vs. 30 : (4 - 12) vs. 24 : (2 - 13) vs. 33 : (1 - 14) vs. 39 : (1 - 14)
Rank 36:
Amb. Caroline Kennedy (23): vs. 6 : (7 - 8) vs. 24 : (5 - 9) vs. 30 : (3 - 12) vs. 33 : (3 - 13) vs. 39 : (1 - 14)
Rank 37:
Sec. John Kerry (24): vs. 6 : (6 - 9) vs. 30 : (6 - 9) vs. 33 : (2 - 14) vs. 39 : (0 - 15)
Rank 38:
Individuals below this threshold will almost certainly not run (6): vs. 30 : (6 - 9) vs. 33 : (6 - 10) vs. 39 : (2 - 13)
Rank 39:
Sec. Hillary Clinton (30): vs. 33 : (4 - 9) vs. 39 : (2 - 10)
Rank 40:
VP. Al Gore (33): vs. 39 : (2 - 10)
Rank 41:
Michelle Obama (39): vs. 33 : (10 - 2)

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